The $50M Telegram OTC Scam: A Forensic Breakdown

Stage 1: The Perfect Bait (Nov 2024-Jan 2025)

The playbook was textbook social engineering. Private Telegram groups offered “exclusive” OTC deals for tokens like GRT and APT at 50% discounts with 4-5 month lockups. Early investors received payouts on schedule - classic trust-building. My analysis of on-chain data shows these initial transactions were likely funded by the scammers’ own capital to establish credibility.

Red Flag #1: No legitimate VC sells tokens at half price unless they’re either desperate or fictional.

Stage 2: Scaling the Con (Feb-Jun 2025)

With credibility established, the operation expanded to include SUI, NEAR, and two dozen other mid-cap tokens. The discounted offers kept coming, now targeting deeper-pocketed victims. What fascinates me as a data analyst is how they maintained the illusion - our wallet clustering shows complex layering across 40+ addresses to simulate legitimate volume.

Stage 3: Warnings Ignored (May 2025)

When SUI’s team publicly warned about fake OTC deals in May, rational actors would’ve paused. But confirmation bias is a hell of a drug. Investors pointed to “successful” earlier deals while ignoring that:

1. All communications happened only on Telegram
2. No KYC was ever performed
3. The so-called “Aza Ventures” had zero online footprint pre-2024

Stage 4: The Ponzi Collapse (June 2025)

The house of cards fell when payouts stopped in June. Our forensic timeline shows:

• June 1: Final FLUID token “deal” launched
• June 19: Aza Ventures claims THEY were scammed too (how convenient)
• $50M vanished into a maze of mixers and CEX deposits

The kicker? “Source 1,” the alleged mastermind, may be a Binance-listed project founder according to my industry sources. Yet no name has surfaced - suggesting either ongoing negotiations or inadequate due diligence.

Lessons for Crypto Investors

1. OTC = High Risk: Unregulated markets attract unregulated behavior
2. Verify Everything: A Twitter check could’ve revealed Aza’s nonexistent history
3. Discounts Are Red Flags: Liquidity providers don’t give away free money

As I often tell my Wall Street clients: In crypto, if you don’t know who the sucker is…