3 Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch After August 7: A Quant’s Playbook

The August 7 Reckoning: Not Panic, Just Price Discovery

Let’s cut through the noise. After August 7, Bitcoin didn’t crash — it tested. At 104,800, the first dip was shallow, volume light — textbook bearish pressure from newsflow without conviction. But then came the real signal: a spike to 113,500 followed by a clean rebound into our pre-defined entry range.

This isn’t emotional trading. This is institutional calibration.

Why BTC Held While ETH Weighed Down

While BTC bounced off its support zone like a spring-loaded trap, Ethereum took a different path. It dipped below expectations — not because of fundamentals, but due to two forces: speculative fear around BlackRock’s potential exit and retail psychology clinging to the ‘break below 3600 = collapse’ meme.

BTC stayed defensive; ETH went on scout duty. That divergence? It tells you where capital is prioritizing risk.

The Real Play: Low-Entry High-Reward Strategy

Market structure reset after that mini-dip at 112,500 — volume dried up, no new lows formed. This isn’t weakness; it’s consolidation before directionality.

My playbook remains unchanged:

• BTC: Target 114,800–115,500 for upside; hold near 113,500–112,800 as base.
• ETH: Trade in the 3550–3675 band with tight stops; use every 25-point move as an opportunity.

Remember: those who wait for perfect entry points will miss entire waves. I’ve seen this dance enough times in my CFA III prep sessions and Bloomberg terminals to know — high-probability setups come from discipline under pressure.

Final Word: Control Your Ego More Than Your Position Size

to catch all movement while preserving edge—this is what separates traders from gamblers.