ফেড রেট কাট হবে কি?
数字不说谎——但它们低语
জুন FOMC-এর মিনিটগুলি कोई policy statement नয়; it एকটি statistical thriller। 19জনের 10জন rate cut-এরই expectancy, inflation crack-এর ଦলিল not, but labor markets quiet stabilize। 7জন still cling to ‘stable rates’—dread of tariff-driven price spikes, not stubbornness।
Tariffs Are the Unseen Variable
Trump’s trade moves political theater not—structural shocks CPI curve। each 5% tariff hike recursive multiplier, Shanghai to Detroit supply chains।
The Median Isn’t Neutral — It’s Nervous
‘Neutral rate’ theoretical ideal not anymore—tariff remove kore inflation drop… realize wrong Powell data watch—we haven’t cut yet. Waller and Bowman? July priced possible।
The Quiet Risk of Being Right Too Soon
growth ‘robust’, unemployment low—but no one dare cut rates before September unless CPI confirmed sustained pressure。Futures November real inflection point—not brave, but Bayesian enough to know uncertainty hasn’t vanished。 I write this not as economist—but as someone who coded Solidity scripts for DeFi protocols and still dreams in spreadsheets。
QuantumSatoshi
জনপ্রিয় মন্তব্য (1)
So the Fed didn’t cut rates because inflation crashed… they cut them because someone forgot to turn off the tariffs? 😅 Meanwhile, 10 of 19 officials are still betting on it like it’s a DeFi lottery. I’ve seen this in Python — even my cat wrote Solidity scripts for this mess. If you think ‘neutral rate’ is real… you’re Bayesian enough to be wrong. Drop your spreadsheet and ask: Who’s gonna pay July? 🤔 (P.S. The CPI curve just whispered back: ‘It’s not me… it’s you.’)
