USDC এবং সার্কেলের গোপন গণিত

H1: 580B-এর പারাডক্‌স – കারণ, സാര്‍ക്കിള്‍ വിസയെക്കാള്‍ ബഹുമതിപ്പെടുന്നു

আমি 582000000000 മূলধনভাড়ায় Circle-এর Nasdaq-এর screen-টা look at kore chokh rukkhe jai. Shocking? No. Because it made too much sense. At 15x P/E, Visa ~15; Circle? Eight times more. Yet here we are. Not crypto mania — it’s math.

H2: Profit Engine: USDC Interest & Fees - 97% Revenue Source

95%+ revenue comes from interest on USD reserves — cash, short-term Treasuries, BlackRock funds. Every USDC dollar in circulation earns yield for them.

So if you’re building regulated digital infrastructure… your key metric isn’t users. It’s supply velocity — how fast capital moves.

H3: Capital Efficiency – Why USDC Beats USDT by 2.8x

USDT has \(189B supply on Binance vs \)58B for USDC. But last month’s volume: \(448B (Tether) vs \)387B (Circle).

Capital efficiency:

• USDT: 2.36x turnover per dollar
• USDC: 6.66x — nearly triple speed.

Every dollar of USDC gets used nearly three times more than a Tether dollar in same period. Not adoption — utility.

H4: Chain Shift – From Ethereum to Alt-VMs & Layer 2s

In early 2021, most USDC was on Ethereum mainnet. Now? Everywhere:

• Solana (96%+ stablecoin share)
• Arbitrum (where USDC surpassed Tether Q3 ’24)
• Hyperliquid bridge ($36B+ deposits since Q4 ’24)

Not random — reflects real demand for fast settlement and low fees in DeFi-native spaces. When Hyperliquid TVL jumped from \(6B to \)25B in one quarter? Most came via bridged USDC.

H5: My AR Model – Predicting Supply with ±1.5% Accuracy The auto-regressive model uses moving averages (1d–30d), trained every 90 days with sliding windows. No neural nets, no black boxes — just clean time-series regression with zero intercepts to enforce signal dependency. since late 2022 → predicted weekly average supply within ±1.5% range in 80% cases. The model doesn’t forecast price—but predicts revenue catalysts before earnings calls. Precise alignment with Fed rate decisions or major exchange listings—not sentiment charts or tweets.

H6: The Real Signal Isn’t Price — It’s Supply Growth Rate The market priced future adoption long before Wall Street understood it.The stock price reflects confidence that even as NIM shrinks due to falling rates, volume-driven fees grow faster—already happening via institutional cash flows and Stripe-like cross-border integrations.The bottom line? The only way to truly ‘trade’ Circle now is by watching its supply curve—not earnings reports.